Record Warmth in Montana: What It Means for Fire Season

Montana has been experiencing unusual winter weather. Record-high temperatures have arrived in parts of the state, golf courses have temporarily opened in mid-January, robins are returning early, and plants that typically bloom in spring are already budding.

We recently asked our listeners how they’re spending this unseasonably warm weather. Many responses weren’t about outdoor fun—they reflected concern about Montana’s upcoming fire season.

To understand what lies ahead, I spoke with Dan Borsum, Northern Rockies Predictive Services Meteorologist. He shared insights into current conditions and what the months ahead may bring.

READ MORE: Montana Winter 2025: What the Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts

Borsum reminded me that Montana saw heavy precipitation last October, including record flooding in some areas. “I think that's an important thing to remember is that there is some moisture that got into the system across the area earlier in the fall.” he said.

Snowpack Trends in Montana

Many residents are closely watching the snowpack in Montana’s mountains and basins. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SNOTEL data, many areas are near normal for this time of year. Meteorologists also track snow water equivalent, which measures how much moisture is in the snow. For example, 40 inches of fluffy snow might only equal 18 inches of water when measured as heavy, wet snow.

Borsum notes that December and January are traditionally drier months, but recent years show a trend toward February bringing more snow. “Computer models are projecting below-normal temperatures and above-normal moisture for February,” he said, which has been a consistent forecast all winter.

How the Jet Stream Affects Winter and Fire Risk

One key factor is the southern jet stream, which becomes more active in February and March. “Stronger weather systems move through the Great Basin. They have much better ability to pull moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico or the Gulf of California up into our part of the world. and then that all of a sudden it creates a pattern where we can go from zero to 60 really quick on our snowpack and things like that.” Borsum explained.

He continued: "These events that are able to put two to three inches of water equivalent up on the mountains are much more of a February through early April phenomena than they are in terms of being a December and January phenomena."

What Montanans Should Know
While much can change in February and March, Borsum encourages residents to enjoy these milder winter moments. Monitoring snowpack trends, weather forecasts, and moisture levels is important as we move toward spring and Montana’s fire season.